THERE ARE LOTS OF US

THE PUBLICS OPINIONS

When I taught courses in Public Opinion, I tried to help my students understand that there is no such thing as “ public opinion,” but, rather, there are opinions shared by those who identify with the dozens of publics that make up America. However pollsters and pundits persist in dividing the nation into three camps; Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Occasionally they do admit there is a “Jewish vote,” a “Black vote,” and, increasingly, an “Hispanic vote,” But race or ethnicity is only one of the dozen “publics,” among which are age, religion, wealth, ideology, occupation, and education.

The holocaust and the AIDS pandemic taught us there is also a “compassion public” whose opinions shifted away from Antisemitism and homophobia when they began to “feel sorry” those who were slaughtered by the Nazi and who died in the HIV pandemic. (There is also a news junkie public, of which I'm one, and I am also part of the growing non-religious public.) Within all of these publics there are sub-publics, among which are the young environmentalist Evangelicals, anti-Zionist Jews, gay Catholics, and Democrats who watch Fox News.

As the “topic of the day” changes there are significant shifts in the opinions of all of these publics. That was clear when Republican Congressman Ryan's budget plan caused older Americans to shift away from the GOP. And when the Occupy movement shifted the topic from the deficit to the wealth divide a major change followed, including among the wealthy.

It is too early to make predictions about how the many publics opinions will impact the 2012 election, or even what topics will dominate the popular discourse then, but if jobs and the wealth divide remain hot Democrats will benefit. But if there is a terrorist attack it could do for Obama what it did for Bush when there actually was, if ever so briefly, a true national public opinion. .