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IT'S THE NUMBERS, STUPID!

There is all but universal agreement among pundits that 2012 will be another year in which, “It's the economy, stupid!” But recent polls predict the likely Electoral College vote – the only one that counts (as Al Gore discovered) – give Obama 242 votes from “safe” blue states, so he's only 28 short of the 270 he needs to win. So it's time to start yelling, 'It's the numbers, stupid! These polls also have him picking up the swing states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Ohio, which add a total of 40 more for a total of 282, 12 more than are needed to give the family dog, Bo, another four years to run around the rose garden. Team Obama also has a good chance of picking up Colorado and Virginia which would have his daughters chanting, “Three-oh-four, three-oh-four, three-oh-four!” Or maybe, “Three-oh-four more years!”

Then, of course, the question of who he'll run against adds an important factor. Most of the polls cited above were based on the assumption Romney would be the (un)lucky winner of the GOP slug fest, but were it to actually be Gingrich, Obama would garner another ten to twenty votes. And the more damage Newt does to Mitt (and Mitt does to himself,) the more it adds to Obama's total. I ought to abide by the dictum “It's too early to predict the outcome!” but a Republican victory in the Electoral College does seem neigh on to impossible.

That conclusion must, of course, be whispered in closed rooms (or sung in the shower,) since it could lead some to decide their votes aren't needed. But as Al Gore and Tom Dewey learned painfully, every one does. One thing Obama could do to snatch many of Ron Paul's young supporters to his side would be to dramatically reduce the Fed's war on marijuana. He doesn't have to inhale, just get the DEA to hold its breath.